How long before US recession risk comes back into market cross hairs? LEI dropped again.

The party continued on US exchanges on Monday:

Now, I’m not the one to stand in front of a freight train. But … from The Conference Board in the US, data on Monday showed:

  • its Leading Economic Index slide 1.0% in December
  • the November reading was revised lower to 1.1% in November
  • December’s fall exceeded all 22 forecasts in a poll of economists by Reuters, which had a median expectation of a decline of 0.7%
  • it’s the 10th straight month of falls
  • The LEI is now down 4.2% over the six-month period between June and December 2022. This is a much steeper rate of decline than its 1.9% contraction over the previous six-month period (December 2021–June 2022)
  • “The US LEI fell sharply again in December—continuing to signal recession for the US economy in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics, at The Conference Board. “There was widespread weakness among leading indicators in December, indicating deteriorating conditions for labor markets, manufacturing, housing construction, and financial markets in the months ahead. Meanwhile, the coincident economic index (CEI) has not weakened in the same fashion as the LEI because labor market related indicators (employment and personal income) remain robust. Nevertheless, industrial production— also a component of the CEI—fell for the third straight month. Overall economic activity is likely to turn negative in the coming quarters before picking up again in the final quarter of 2023.”

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